FYI: Archietcural Billing Index for September

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  • October 19, 2011 at 8:48 pm #159650
    Jason T. Radice
    Participant

    FYI-

     

    The September ABI fell substantially from a brief blip into the positive for August. See the chart at the bottom of the article for the trending. Makes you wonder whay happened in August to get the blip 1.4 points into the positive?  

     

    See link below:

    http://www.architectmagazine.com/business/architecture-billings-index-data—october2011.aspx

    October 20, 2011 at 3:05 am #159654
    landplanner
    Participant

    Jason:

     

    First up, I have always appreciated your insightful, cogent and well-crafted sarcastic commentary here. Your a welcome voice here at Land8Lounge. I too view the AIA billing index, mostly through the lens of Calculated Risk.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

    This finance and global economics blog checks in periodically with this index and uses it as an indicator of things to come. There recurring comment it is that it is not hopeful in the near term (9 to 12 months out) in the slightest.

     

    I doubt, even with strange blip on the graph, you would differ from their extrapolations.

    Writing for myself here, I  rely on anecdotal evidence or trends to give me more conclusive evidence of trends and projections. I find no better reliable blog for that than this one. It has a stark and not so uplifting title, namely

    “Daily Job Cuts” . You can find it here.

    http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

     

    I have been following it for more well over a year. In very short summary, here are the trends it reveals, most with no surprises, but a few that are under the current economic “radar”

    • Banking, finance and other relatred creations are bracing for huge layoffs
    • The segment of the US economy that was supposedly the healthiest and actually creating jobs, namely health care, are cutting jobs left and right.
    • Public sector jobs are hemmoraging, in every state, in every city and in every county. We are now down to the marrow of the bone and public safety jobs are being cut.
    • Every directly or indirectly related company connected to to construction and development continues to be hit and hard (read everything from lumber mills to door and window manufacturers)

    I am not a harbinger of doom here. I currently reside and work in the most overly productive economy and country in the world. I am here to continue to work, get more than adequately compensated and ride out the economic calamity beseiging my (our) own country. I really don’t think I will last that long- it is very different over here (more on that later)

     

    Again, I have always appreciated your intellect and awareness. Keep it up and keep posting here.

    October 20, 2011 at 8:10 pm #159653
    Jason T. Radice
    Participant

    Thanks for the flattery…and thanks for the links. I will have to add those in my daily news-troll on the web when I have the time. Mostly, because I am lazy and hate to read too much, I keep the business channels on in the background for much of the statistics…every thursday AM, the jobs numbers come out, I keep an eye on the ABI as it is monthly (not quarterly) and has a much larger sample size than the ASLA survey. Also, permit applications permits pulled numbers reflect on the construction trends. Much of that work, of course, was off the boards finished years ago, and much of it is starting in order to keep their approvals and permits (zoning changes and whatnot).

     

    I agree wth your assesment of the current economy and will add the aprehension of investment and the hoarding of capital due to the political, regulatory, tax, and stock market instability. The only government entity that IS growing is the federal government…I expect that to shrink somewhat after January 2013. It’s not so much the harbinger of doom, is that you are ‘keepin’ it real’ You are being honest with yourself, as I wish our politicians would be. It sucks, it ain’t gettin better, and what you tried ain’t workin’. Stop it.

     

    Good luck overseas, and when I see something bidness related, I’ll post it. I’m trying to keep myself out of the pseudointellectual battle happening on some of these threads and keeping it LA related so I haven’t been posting as much.

    October 20, 2011 at 9:37 pm #159652
    Dennis J. Jarrard, PLA, CLARB
    Participant

    I guess I should count my blessings and stop complaining to others about having to work 50 – 60 hour weeks because we are so busy.  That we actually have clients that are actually spending money and building and who are ramping up their growth efforts.  Keep it real everyone.  There are good things happening out there, it’s not all doom and gloom.

    October 20, 2011 at 9:47 pm #159651
    Jason T. Radice
    Participant

    Glad you have so much work. There is indeed activity. Much of it localized (as you can see in the ABI) and quantity differs by the type of work you do. But taken as a whole, the industry continues downward, and any growth is neither substantial or prolonged. I know a few places (especially in architecture) that are working OT (paid or not) because the contracts are not there to hire more staff permanently. They are getting by on who they have.  

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